Are you saying that if you only ever saw white swans in your life that means the simple answer that there are only white swans in existence is usually true?
Karl Popper solved that problem in his book The Logic of Scientific Discovery.

I have actually no idea about anything concerning the problem discussed in this thread. I am just saying you are dead wrong by assuming Occam's razor to be actually useful for anything. Here is a simple video showing you why
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKA4w2O61Xo

I haven't even assumed it to be useful. It's a guiding principle. Until the simplest answer is disproved, it makes no sense to speculate on more complicated answers, particularly if you have no evidence to support them. It's illogical, and inefficient, to work backwards from least probable to most probable when trying to determine what is truth. It wastes too much time.