Secret Santa 2024
this article i think is pretty spot on:

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a6942016.html

my point would be:
By taking up the cause of the Syrian and Libyan opposition and
destroying the Syrian and Libyan states,France and Britain
opened the door to Isis and should share in the blame for the rise of Isis
and terrorism in Europe.By refusing to admit to or learn from past mistakes,
the West Europeans did little to lay the basis for the current,surprisingly successful cessation of
hostilities in Syria which is almost entirely an US and Russian achievement.

Britain and France have stuck close to Saudi Arabia and the Gulf monarchies in their policies towards Syria.
I asked a former negotiator why this was so and he crisply replied: Money.They wanted Saudi contracts.
After the capture of Salah Abdeslam there is talk of security lapses that had allowed him to evade arrest for so long,
but this is largely irrelevant as terrorist attacks will go on as long
as Isis remains a power.Once again,the wall-to-wall media coverage is allowing Western governments to escape responsibility
for a far worse security failure,which is their own disastrous policies.
Not going too deep on the subject, but I think we need some kind of push in the right direction here.

Are these trends real?

What trends? That war has escaped the middle east and the west is not prepared to fight said wars on their own soil? Yes. Most of the western world has troops in the middle east fighting a regime, and its followers are fighting us with the means accessible, including fighting said war in the west. "What about the civilians?", since when has the war FN/Nato/US ever fought a war without inflicting civilian casualties? The whole intervention has caused the deaths of thousands of innocents, and most of it are on the hands of the west, not said regimes. Sure, oppression exist under a regime, but that said oppression still follows rules of that regime, much like the death sentence in the US follows US law. Now, that we as foreigners believing that said rule is wrong and that thus we should intervene, we have only our morals on which we act as there is no true right thing to do, and as such, if they fight a war on our soil with the same idea it's fair game. "But civilians", yes, why not? We have tried to tidy it up since WW1, but war is gruesome, and as far as I know, they have signed no treaty to not fight us with any means necessary to have the western world stop the intervention in the middle east, or really, any part of the world where we bring death.

What about in terms of severity/amount of life lost?

It's fair game. We kill people, they kill people. To fight our intervention in said zones, one of the best way is to have the people press politicians to withdraw troops, or to reach a scenario similar to MAD where it's simply not a good idea to not stop the intervention in the middle east. After all, we as the west destabilized the first functioning democracy [EDIT] in recent history[/EDIT] in the region over some fucking oil, and we are still to pay the price, as are we to blame for the damage it has caused upon millions of civilians in said region of the world.

What external, possibly previously overlooked factors could be causing this trend?

None? We have pretty much not ignored the factors, but neglected them. We have somehow come to the conclusion that the intervention in the middle east is a good solution, and that's probably where we are wrong, to some extent. However, now that we have birthed ISIS perhaps withdrawing is not a good solution either, but the price of damage control by other means might be very high, including the recent terror attacks, but at no point limited to them. These attacks are most likely only the beginning to a trend that will stretch far into the future as the western world has shown how weak it is to said ways of war.

Would it be ethical or even possible to reduce or eliminate these factors and how?

At this point, there is simply choosing the lesser evil of two horrendous scenarios; a prolonged state of the current war ending in either the second option or a massive invasion/purging of said region of the world (compare to Irak invasion or the nukes over japan). The second option is to withdraw troops and let ISIS form as a state. In essence it's no worse than any other extreme-religious state such as Israel.
Last edited by Smogard49; Mar 23, 2016 at 11:54 PM. Reason: left out a important part.
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Originally Posted by Smogard49 View Post
What this guy said about war.

I think one of the biggest mistakes people make when discussing this topic is calling terror attacks an act of war, or even an eye for an eye attack. At what point did any of the western countries launch an attack which goal was to create maximum civillian casulties and as much terror as possible? Suicide bombing innocent civillians isnt exactly what I would call war. Also ISIS isn't much worse than israel? For shits sake, last time I checked israel didn't exactly take sexslaves for the sole purpose of rape, or behead journalists with opposite views. But hey, what do I know about worse. Sure the west is partially to blame for this shitfest, but please dont call this whole thing a "fair game"
Last edited by Kyure; Mar 24, 2016 at 01:30 AM.
Originally Posted by Smogard49 View Post
Not going too deep on the subject, but I think we need some kind of push in the right direction here.

Are these trends real?

What trends? That war has escaped the middle east and the west is not prepared to fight said wars on their own soil? Yes. Most of the western world has troops in the middle east fighting a regime, and its followers are fighting us with the means accessible, including fighting said war in the west. "What about the civilians?", since when has the war FN/Nato/US ever fought a war without inflicting civilian casualties? The whole intervention has caused the deaths of thousands of innocents, and most of it are on the hands of the west, not said regimes. Sure, oppression exist under a regime, but that said oppression still follows rules of that regime, much like the death sentence in the US follows US law. Now, that we as foreigners believing that said rule is wrong and that thus we should intervene, we have only our morals on which we act as there is no true right thing to do, and as such, if they fight a war on our soil with the same idea it's fair game. "But civilians", yes, why not? We have tried to tidy it up since WW1, but war is gruesome, and as far as I know, they have signed no treaty to not fight us with any means necessary to have the western world stop the intervention in the middle east, or really, any part of the world where we bring death.

What about in terms of severity/amount of life lost?

It's fair game. We kill people, they kill people. To fight our intervention in said zones, one of the best way is to have the people press politicians to withdraw troops, or to reach a scenario similar to MAD where it's simply not a good idea to not stop the intervention in the middle east. After all, we as the west destabilized the first functioning democracy [EDIT] in recent history[/EDIT] in the region over some fucking oil, and we are still to pay the price, as are we to blame for the damage it has caused upon millions of civilians in said region of the world.

I may be mistaken, but it feels like the first half of your post is really rather derailing. Whether the West started this shitstorm is irrelevant to whether there is a real observable trend in the number of terrorist attacks over time. Sure you could argue that you are saying we are the terrorists, and therefor our actions in that area must be included in these trends, but you didn't really imply that in your post. Furthermore including act of intervention by the West would probably only add to the suspected trend (an increase), in which case it is irrelevant to bring up. Maybe my questions weren't clear enough, or maybe I am misinterpreting your post even now, but otherwise, try to keep your message to where it is relevant (like the third question I listed, which the first half of your post would of fitted well into)

On a side note, people should not feel obliged to answer all three of the questions at once. Two people have now tried to provide answers for every single question at once, but I have not seen any links showing statistical evidence that there are even any trends in the amount of terrorism over the last few years. You need to lay a solid foundation before you can do the flamboyant, more opinion based stuff. The technical boring stuff should come before self expression and flair.
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P.S. please don't get into an argument about whether ISIS is similar to Israel. It isn't relevant. I am sorry this topic is so narrow, but I left another thread open about two separate terrorist attacks and child soldiers with a very loose theme. This is a very specific thread created out of a point make in a single post.
Last edited by Zelda; Mar 24, 2016 at 01:26 AM. Reason: <24 hour edit/bump
Good morning sweet princess
Originally Posted by cowmeat View Post
I think one of the biggest mistakes people make when discussing this topic is calling terror attacks an act of war, or even an eye for an eye attack. At what point did any of the western countries launch an attack which goal was to create maximum civillian casulties and as much terror as possible? Suicide bombing innocent civillians isnt exactly what I would call war. Also ISIS isn't much worse than israel? For shits sake, last time I checked israel didn't exactly take sexslaves for the sole purpose of rape, or behead journalists with opposite views. But hey, what do I know about worse. Sure the west is partially to blame for this shitfest, but please dont call this whole thing a "fair game"

I also like the fact that you consider yourself a proper discussion jesus, who's here to teach us the ways of discussion.

I simply made the comparison to Israel as both has caused death amongst their own population, one be it Palestinians in Gaza and one be it another part of the population.

The thing I find interesting is that you would consider not giving all before throwing your life at the hands of a opposing [edit] force[/edit]. The war in the middle east has now lasted more than a decade, and as far as I know, the war has been fought in the middle east and mostly civilians in the middle east has died. Why not invite these forces over to the west and fight the war in the west? Human history up to and including WW2 has been forged by horrendous acts not limited to rape, executions without trial and murder of civilians at the hands allied forces. But all of a sudden we expect war to be a noble thing, a fight where one resigns as if in chess and that's it? Saying that terror attacks are not acts of war is just as illusional as believing that there is such a thing as a fair world, however, not sinking to the same moral low is honourable, but disconnected from any kind of realism.

EDIT NO2:

Originally Posted by Zelda View Post
I may be mistaken, but it feels like the first half of your post is really rather derailing. Whether the West started this shitstorm is irrelevant to whether there is a real observable trend in the number of terrorist attacks over time. Sure you could argue that you are saying we are the terrorists, and therefor our actions in that area must be included in these trends, but you didn't really imply that in your post.

I have simply put forward the motion that these acts of war is a natural evolution to the war fought in the middle east. At some point the western society disconnected itself from the idea that war can be fought at home as well and that wars are a gruesome thing strictly different from a chess game with guns, where soldiers are the only pawns that fall. Perhaps I am the one who does not understand this "seemingly" natural conviction that there is a strict difference between the nukes over japan as a act of war and these occurrences in the western society at the moment? Both were aimed at the general population to force leaders to resign in this noble game called war.
Last edited by Smogard49; Mar 24, 2016 at 01:13 AM. Reason: replaced the word state with force., and some spelling
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Originally Posted by Smogard49 View Post
I simply made the comparison to Israel as both has caused death amongst their own population, one be it Palestinians in Gaza and one be it another part of the population.

The thing I find interesting is that you would consider not giving all before throwing your life at the hands of a opposing [edit] force[/edit]. The war in the middle east has now lasted more than a decade, and as far as I know, the war has been fought in the middle east and mostly civilians in the middle east has died. Why not invite these forces over to the west and fight the war in the west? Human history up to and including WW2 has been forged by horrendous acts not limited to rape, executions without trial and murder of civilians at the hands allied forces. But all of a sudden we expect war to be a noble thing, a fight where one resigns as if in chess and that's it? Saying that terror attacks are not acts of war is just as illusional as believing that there is such a thing as a fair world, however, not sinking to the same moral low is honourable, but disconnected from any kind of realism.

"But all of a sudden we expect war to be a noble thing"

There are things like warcrimes, Geneva conventions (protocols of war) etc., so yeah, we kind of do expect war to be atleast somewhat "noble"

also what on earth are you on about with this?:

"Why not invite these forces over to the west and fight the war in the west?"

I don't really see a point with all your rambling about chess, nukes and israel.
What are you trying to say? That ISIS is just something we're gonna have to be okay with from now on? Or that we should nuke everything? That west should just now be okay with terrorists because some countries occupied Iraq?
As far as I'm aware Belgium did not play a massive part in those horrible acts you speak of. I don't really understand you.
Last edited by cowmeat; Mar 24, 2016 at 01:18 AM. Reason: Added some nukes, we all like dem nukes
"There are things like warcrimes, geneve conventions and such, so yeah, we kind of do expect war to be atleast somewhat "noble" "

What? Law of War is just some kind of public international law, a piece of paper signed by multiple parties. Has ISIS ever signed such a document? Has ISIS signed the Geneva convention, perhaps the fourth? In what world did you think there were some natural occurring laws that you had to adhere to? They are simply treaties between sovereign states (in most cases) that state something along the lines of "we will not do X, and you will not do X in case we fight a war"

"also what on earth are you on about with this?:
"Why not invite these forces over to the west and fight the war in the west?"I don't really see a point with all your rambling about chess, nukes and israel etc."

I simply implied that we have become disattached from reality believing that we can contain a war to a certain geographic zone. These act are much like the acts of allied forces in japan is what I implied, acts aimed att causing terror and have the western world give in, call back troops and accept that if the war were to continue, civilians would pay the price at home.

"What are you trying to say? That ISIS is just something we're gonna have to be okay with from now on? Or that we should nuke everything? I don't really understand you."

I'm simply implying that these acts are acts of war. Either we accept that this is the toll that the opposing forces will have to pay in order to wage war, or we give up on this ordeal to purge the middle east of the idea that the west is a enemy, a enemy worth giving up ones life fighting.
Last edited by Zelda; Mar 24, 2016 at 01:40 AM. Reason: Spelling
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So your point is essentially that military intervention has a positive correlation with the frequency of terrorist attacks and the number of deaths as a result of these attacks? I know you are also saying a load of stuff about how we subsequently kinda deserve, and should not be surprised by this, but that is, for the most part, completely irrelevant to the topic at hand.

If this is in fact what you are arguing, then please provide some sources to support this correlation (amount of troops in middle eastern countries each year compared to terrorist attacks from there, correlations between troop withdrawals and amount of attacks ect.). Just to clarify, this thread is about whether and why the attacks are getting worse, not about why they started in the first place.

-EDIT-
For this thread to exist we need to distinguish between terrorism, and normal acts of war. They are not mutually exclusive. If I bombed the shit out of your capital city despite this providing no tactical advantage to myself and said that it was not an act of war then that would be crazy. However if I stated that it was just your average, run of the mill act of war then I would be wrong once again. Obviously provocation is a large factor in this conflict, but still, ISIS is taking territories by force and we are attempting to stop it. ISIS is bombing civilians when they probably know it will never lead to the end of western intervention. This is similar, but undeniably different to the usual act of war. Can you at least agree with that?
Last edited by Zelda; Mar 24, 2016 at 01:48 AM.
Good morning sweet princess
Originally Posted by Zelda View Post
So your point is essentially that military intervention has a positive correlation with the frequency of terrorist attacks and the number of deaths as a result of these attacks? I know you are also saying a load of stuff about how we subsequently kinda deserve, and should not be surprised by this, but that is, for the most part, completely irrelevant to the topic at hand.

If this is in fact what you are arguing, then please provide some sources to support this correlation (amount of troops in middle eastern countries each year compared to terrorist attacks from there, correlations between troop withdrawals and amount of attacks ect.). Just to clarify, this thread is about whether and why the attacks are getting worse, not about why they started in the first place.

No?(4, see below) All I have to to argue on the 3rd question is to argue that it is a factor, or I could simply argue that it is not a trend at all.(1)

(2)[LAST EDIT ON THIS POST]: I put that way to bluntly and obscured. The topic you posted were aimed at cause and effect. I can argue Effect and still be within the stretch of the topic in the OP, but lets say you want to have a thread about cause, then state so. Also, Me arguing for a natural evolution is circumventing the cause clause and arguing for another view on the situation at hand; war fought with non-conventional means. A simple mind game would be to say that ISIS had nukes, what would they do? Would they like the US use it to end a war by terror? Now, in the given case they do not have two nukes and some bombers at hand, instead they can launch small scale acts of war causing panic and fear, in other word, acts of war aimed at causing terror. That has been the main point I have been arguing throughout my posts if that has eluded you.[/EDIT]

Now, do you want some sources on how military intervention called starting a war or military conflicts called fighting a war might open new fronts or provoke counter military actions?

But sure, I could dig up articles like this:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/...t-9195455.html

Or perhaps countless articles like:
https://foreignpolicy.com/2015/11/20...errorism-isis/
http://america.aljazeera.com/opinion...on-terror.html
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/joerge...b_8567056.html

Or do you want a government paper or another institutional paper from a non-profiting non-newspaper source?

(1): So, what i'm arguing is that this is a change to the way the war in the middle east is fought. I am not denying that there has been a change, I am simply arguing that it is a natural step in any modern conflict given the means at hand.

Originally Posted by Zelda View Post
-EDIT-
For this thread to exist we need to distinguish between terrorism, and normal acts of war. They are not mutually exclusive. If I bombed the shit out of your capital city despite this providing no tactical advantage to myself and said that it was not an act of war then that would be crazy. However if I stated that it was just your average, run of the mill act of war then I would be wrong once again. Obviously provocation is a large factor in this conflict, but still, ISIS is taking territories by force and we are attempting to stop it. ISIS is bombing civilians when they probably know it will never lead to the end of western intervention. This is similar, but undeniably different to the usual act of war. Can you at least agree with that?

Why? Why argue that it has no effect that could potentially help their situation (ref: "ISIS is bombing civilians when they probably know it will never lead to the end of western intervention") or is SOOOOO different than any other act of war aimed at creating a pressure on the opposing forces governments and cause unrest in said region? I will not agree to the point that these attacks does weaken ISIS. They show that the western society is mortal to its followers which also causes political unrest and fear in the regions they strike. It is simply another way to wage war, but none the less is it effective, and a way that has been used during past conflicts. What separates it from poisoning a well killing off a village or having soldiers butcher a village is that it is done with modern means of killing people which means that it's absurdly hard to protect oneself from it. It is a natural evolution to the art of war, and I will not deny that it is gruesome, and effective.

Fuck it (3); ISIS, ISIL, I may have used the wrong acronym, but I do think it doesn't change any of the major points I made.

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(4):
Originally Posted by Zelda View Post
What are you disagreeing with when you just say "No?". I said a number of distinct things and you quoted the whole post and expected me to know what you were talking about. Please try to be clear in your posts.

Originally Posted by Zelda View Post
So your point is essentially that military intervention has a positive correlation with the frequency of terrorist attacks and the number of deaths as a result of these attacks?

No. I said acts of war breeds acts of war, and I did not distinguish between acts of war causing terror and other acts of war. I did not mention the lethality of war.

Originally Posted by Zelda View Post
I know you are also saying a load of stuff about how we subsequently kinda deserve, and should not be surprised by this, but that is, for the most part, completely irrelevant to the topic at hand.

No. I have not argued how the western world deserves war, I have argued that it's a natural evolution in how to fight another force when pinned down to a strategical weak position in a war. I have not detailed this, but I have made at-least one connection to the topic at hand and may I say it myself, stated the relevance of said connection by pin-pointing why a separation between "acts of war" and "acts of terror" is a superficial ignorant way to view the modern day conflict.

Originally Posted by Zelda View Post
If this is in fact what you are arguing, then please provide some sources to support this correlation (amount of troops in middle eastern countries each year compared to terrorist attacks from there, correlations between troop withdrawals and amount of attacks ect.). Just to clarify, this thread is about whether and why the attacks are getting worse, not about why they started in the first place.

See (1) and (2).
Last edited by Smogard49; Mar 24, 2016 at 03:07 AM. Reason: added (1), Edit 2; Rephrased the obvious (2), and (3)... (4)
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Cause and effect implies their relationship it is a common af idiom which I would expect you to be able to decipher as such without breaking it down into its literal word for word meaning.

Look, I googled it for you

See that it says causation, that is what I meant. Not the individual nouns.

Nevertheless, thank you for clearing that point up in your last edit. You are correct that arguing that the trend is either non existent (as one of your links stated) or just the result of the inevitable and unsurprising progression of warfare and history. I should of realised this reading your first edit, but the links and everything else made it look more like waffle than a summary to me at that stage.

I am willing to concede that the thread title is not specific enough about what type of attack we are talking about. Yes, I would probably consider nuking Japan as a terrorist attack, as I would consider the supply barricade for anything more than military goods and bombing of capital cities in world wars as acts of terrorism. But they also has a military objective, to economically cripple the opponent until they could no longer sustain a war effort. The costs listed for 9/11 are the war effort, unless they had managed to continuously destroy large areas of multiple cities every week or so (don't know how often, doesn't matter) then the damage they do economically would not be enough to effect the war effort.

I mean, look at the Blitz, look at that shit, that is what I call strategically effective terrorism, and did it end up working? Still no. So do you really think flights being cancelled for a few days, and 30 people dead will help ISIS, who would be much easier to defeat, and much more devastating to be defeated by than the Germans? Suicide bombs are pathetic compared to what nations do when they want to actually get stuff done.

The Paris attacks only increased French air strikes, and why are they attacking Belgium?

Maybe (as one of your sources said) we will be less partial to taking in refugees, which adds possible recruits to their ranks, but since there is quite a low chance that this will work, and since most of these missions end up in multiple ISIS casualties (either since they are suicide missions anyway, or because they are stopped by law enforcement). It seems to me like the difference these attacks make is pretty negligible when you consider that ISIS (as one of your sources said) is losing the ground war in the middle east, and considering we have consistently upped the war effort every time they do this. I'm afraid I am not buying that these attacks are motivated by anything other than the urge to satisfy religious hatred in the short-term. They are doing this for their ideology, not for their war effort.
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I don't understand why you needed the forth edit.
Last edited by Zelda; Mar 24, 2016 at 03:56 AM. Reason: <24 hour edit/bump
Good morning sweet princess