I do believe in Alien Civilization, they might exist in many parts of the universe. The Universe is just way too massive and not even a speed of light could bring you to another Galaxy unless we could find way to unlock immortality and infinite energy. Hence in Alien life perspective there are low chances imo for them to meet us, Because we are limited in only our Galaxy. 100,000,000 habitable planet could not be enough. Chances are these planets rarely creates a intelligent species like us, maybe some of them exist but wiped out because of any catastrophic events. Maybe we could meet them one day.
Originally Posted by Divine
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The drake equation, which attempts to take all these factors into consideration, predicts anywhere from a few dozen alien civiliations in our galaxy to a few million, depending on how you determine the factors working against or for life. It remains however, that even if life is astronomically rare, we mustn't rule out the possibility of other Civilzations out there.
Despite that, depending on how pessimistic you are, you would be very justified to argue against any advanced aliens in our galaxy, and I think at this point no serious Astrobiologist expects us to find an advanced alien civilization next door.
But I don't think this makes the whole conversation a moot point. What we think of the likelyhood of alien civilzations can tell us alot about our own place in the Galaxy, and theorycrafting about why we may or may not be able to find said civilizations can also teach us alot.
I'm not necessarily pessimistic that other life exist but the 'well statistically theres gotta be aliens' argument annoys me because it makes assumptions on incomplete info.
The drake equation is kind of fun, but it's really just a bunch of values that you can set to any number you want to get whatever outcome you want.
Discussion's like this can be interesting but they often devolve into psuedoscientific reasoning. All current evidence for the 'are there aliens?' question points to no. This isn't because we have looked long and hard and haven't found any, we just aren't far enough along to make any meaningful assumptions or observations so no is the default.
The drake equation is kind of fun, but it's really just a bunch of values that you can set to any number you want to get whatever outcome you want.
Discussion's like this can be interesting but they often devolve into psuedoscientific reasoning. All current evidence for the 'are there aliens?' question points to no. This isn't because we have looked long and hard and haven't found any, we just aren't far enough along to make any meaningful assumptions or observations so no is the default.
Originally Posted by Divine
I'm not necessarily pessimistic that other life exist but the 'well statistically theres gotta be aliens' argument annoys me because it makes assumptions on incomplete info.
The thing is because we lack observational evidence and probably will never get any, relying on statistics and mathematical models is all we can do. The power of these models should not be underestimated either, as many things that first started out as a statistical or mathematical model were later confirmed via direct/indirect observational evidence. Prime example is the existance of black holes.
Originally Posted by Divine
The drake equation is kind of fun, but it's really just a bunch of values that you can set to any number you want to get whatever outcome you want.
The values are by no means "any number", the factors are based on our best understanding of how the universe works, the uncertainty lies mostly in the unpredictability of alien civilizations, should they arise, because they are alien to us.
Originally Posted by Divine
Discussion's like this can be interesting but they often devolve into psuedoscientific reasoning. All current evidence for the 'are there aliens?' question points to no. This isn't because we have looked long and hard and haven't found any, we just aren't far enough along to make any meaningful assumptions or observations so no is the default.
You're right, all current evidence points us towards the fact that we are the only civilization in our observable universe. I was not trying to argue specifically for the existence of aliens but rather i was interested to hear what people think personally.
I also don't really agree on your statement about us not being far enough along to make meaninging assumptions: We have a pretty good grasp of how Stars and planets work, what kind of stars could support life as we know, etc. Since it's our only reference point, looking in the places where we'd feel the most comfortable may be a self centered approach but the only one available to us.
There is a huge degree of uncertainty, of course I'm not denying that, but there is certainly enough science to make informed assumptions (like the drake equation)
Also thanks everyone for posting your opinions. I'm kinda glad I'm not the only one interested in stuff like this
The real question right now is how does life form, what is the minimum requirement for a single celled entity to form? Then maybe, we can truly start analysis. Because until then, we don't know what conditions need to be present for life to form.
I don't understand why we'd never get any observational evidence. There are plenty of ways to get observational evidence from going to other planets, analyzing atmospheric composition, receiving a signal, observing a structure an alien has made, exploring our origin. I think we can get there, we can even get there relatively soon because technological advance is an exponential curve, but we aren't there yet.
Einstein's General Relativity isn't the same as a model used to predict the likely hood of extraterrestrial life. We think black holes are exist because his theory makes MANY other testable predictions which have held up so far, but there's also a grey area because neither General or Special Relativity works in quantum systems.
R x Fp x Ne x F1 x Fi x Fc x L
R: can be know but has a decently broad range at the moment
Fp: we have no idea, put your best guess
Ne: we have not a single clue, not even close to a hunch, put whatever you want
And every other variable has to be derived from Ne, so if you want to make a calculation with the drake equation, you need to put in what are essentially random numbers from Ne onward
We know our star and our planet can support life but we don't know if it can develop life from nothing. Maybe we came in on an asteroid, maybe we were placed here by a creator.
Originally Posted by Chirs
The thing is because we lack observational evidence and probably will never get any
I don't understand why we'd never get any observational evidence. There are plenty of ways to get observational evidence from going to other planets, analyzing atmospheric composition, receiving a signal, observing a structure an alien has made, exploring our origin. I think we can get there, we can even get there relatively soon because technological advance is an exponential curve, but we aren't there yet.
Originally Posted by Chirs
The power of these models should not be underestimated either, as many things that first started out as a statistical or mathematical model were later confirmed via direct/indirect observational evidence. Prime example is the existance of black holes.
Einstein's General Relativity isn't the same as a model used to predict the likely hood of extraterrestrial life. We think black holes are exist because his theory makes MANY other testable predictions which have held up so far, but there's also a grey area because neither General or Special Relativity works in quantum systems.
Originally Posted by Chirs
The values are by no means "any number", the factors are based on our best understanding of how the universe works
R x Fp x Ne x F1 x Fi x Fc x L
R: can be know but has a decently broad range at the moment
Fp: we have no idea, put your best guess
Ne: we have not a single clue, not even close to a hunch, put whatever you want
And every other variable has to be derived from Ne, so if you want to make a calculation with the drake equation, you need to put in what are essentially random numbers from Ne onward
Originally Posted by Chirs
I also don't really agree on your statement about us not being far enough along to make meaninging assumptions: We have a pretty good grasp of how Stars and planets work, what kind of stars could support life as we know
We know our star and our planet can support life but we don't know if it can develop life from nothing. Maybe we came in on an asteroid, maybe we were placed here by a creator.
