I wrote this last night, it is a bit ranty, but it took me a lot of time, it probably doesn't acknowledge how fast the petition has now started getting signatures since I was not aware of that last night anyway:
Ok, this is going to be a very long post, initially simply asserting that mallymkun lives in a fantasy dream land of hypocrisy and under informed delusions where he is somehow able to extrapolate definite outcomes when even professional experts in those fields are unable to. I would also like to assert that he should feel like a very silly sausage indeed, along with a lot of the leave campaign, but that would be very off topic and would take a lot of time.
So, you start your argument congratulating Nigel Farage on dedicating 10 years to bettering
Britain by leading us to vote leave. Bearing in mind that when he promised
to leave UKIP if it didn't win, as a way to better his own political standing (and by extension career prospects), he came back after a Summer long "break", I don't think we should trust him to properly think out what would happen if his promise to get Britain to leave the EU ended up actually happening, as they have. The promise to leave the EU was a fantastic way to improve his career as well. I am not saying he was only doing to help himself, he could well believe that this is the best thing for the country, I just don't want him to start campaigning to rejoin the EU after the summer has ended, and in general I trust his word less than other politicians.
Originally Posted by
ultimatumm
Nigel lafarge is a racist and a liar, I don't know how can you like him..
All politicians could qualify as liars, and he obviously has a shit tonne of charisma, even people who hate him should be able to see why he is currently relevant politically. Look how well Hitler did (not implying there is a similarity in character at all in any way, only leave campaigners would use Nazi Germany and a politically relevant parallel to this referendum, and I clearly am not them. It is just an example of someone being liked for their scare mongering (oh no the Jews and communists vs. oh no the greedy job stealing immigrants), their oppositional patriotism, and their ridiculous quantities of charisma).
Originally Posted by
Mallymkun
I'm sure he can specify for himself.
Useless post, what he was asking was obvious and explaining something you asked about was a move to speed up the discussion which you used to hold back the conversation with redundant pedantry.
Originally Posted by
Fizz
i was under the impression that the brexit was more about controlling immigration.. which i don't really see as a problem
That is what the leave campaigners want, it is an area which inspires emotion rather than rationality. Although, to be fair, the main merits of the remain campaign were avoiding the fear of the unknown, but in general, caution makes sense when fear of the unknown is what will drive the majority
(as has been demonstrated by the drop of the pound) of potential investors now.
Originally Posted by
Mallymkun
A number of reasons. To put it simply, the EU is a sinking ship. Turkey joining in a few years is bound to spark up more referendums across Europe, with the likes of France, Germany and Italy.
Slippery slope fallacy (I am linking, because,
even especially with you accusing other people of it, I still am not persuaded you have any idea what it actual means/applies to), (as has been argued throughout the thread) Turkey is not
definitely going to join in a few years, I don't know how likely it is and I am not going to pretend to, but you shouldn't either. So even at the first step in this, actually pretty long, chain of events, your assertion is much less certain than you would imply. Next is everyone else leaving EU, and Britain with it, I couldn't find any really useful articles on how prominent these campaigns were before Brexit happened (because, obviously, all the media outlets have "leave" and "EU" as keywords for all of the articles on Brexit itself, so articles on anything completely disappear), but I feel like that probably means you didn't either, and are assuming that these countries would have done the same as Britain is we ourselves hadn't left, because your delusion demands that you forget that the vote was close in Britain was reasonably close, that other countries in Europe are different enough from England for their actions to be predictive of each other, and that, in general, when it is old verses young demographic of voters, the vote is much less predictable, as stuff like whether it is raining could sway a vote (young people are more likely to not bother voting as a result of something small and unpredictable, because their
risk reward system is in favour of taking larger risks for less reward, so they are likely to assume that the reward of getting to stay at home and play video games or w/e is worth the risk of feeling like an idiot when the vote goes differently to how they wanted, especially bearing in mind that the polling predicted the vote to be very close, and the historical evidence of Scotland's referendum switching from appearing to be similarly very close to strongly in favour of staying, both point towards a decent majority on the remain side. Combine this with the fact that young people will have been less likely to have had something like this happen before (not voting for something because they didn't think it would count, and then being proven wrong), it is clear that one side of the vote will be very unpredictable and be effected by stuff like whether any football matches are on the TV ect.). Essentially, your assumption that other countries would have left anyway is genuinely offensive to me as someone who actually thinks about their views before asserting them as the obvious, victorious, unassailable and perfect truth. You can't assert that another country would have left, and although it is obviously possibly, this is already relying on Turkey joining, which you also can't assert.
Originally Posted by Mallymkun
Oh, and guess what? We'll now be a self-governing nation. No more un-elected bureaucrats telling us what to do. Democracy lives on.
What? The fact that we are allowed to leave, and chose to enter, means it can only be undemocratic in a way which only damages representation rather than actual freedom. Bear in mind that I am not questioning the lack of representation part of democracy, partially because I don't know a lot about the specifics of the system itself, so am avoiding making conclusions based on them, and partially because that line of argument has been being discussed by other people for a while without my involvement and I don't have much to add. Also remember that if you make democracy more representative, you will inevitably end up with a frankenstein of policies, where every nut job is represented (I don't want to make Hitler a recurring theme, but it is the only example of a more representative election system that I have been taught. I admit that it may qualify as anecdotal if it is the only example of this happening). In terms of the freedom thing, we democratically opted into a system which the populace of the country at the time believed would be the best option, either for themselves, their country or the world in general. We have been quite content with this system until now, so we have voted to leave. Just because you are free to do something, doesn't mean it is bad that you can't do it. You make some sacrifices for other countries and they make some for you, kind of like a marriage. I feel like at this point you might strawman this argument as me assuming that this relationship works, and that I have an issue with the suggestion that it might not, but I have not, at any point, criticised you specifically for arguing that the positives of the EU outweigh the negatives, because that is the only thing you should be arguing about (and to be fair you actually have been). What I am not at all ok with is you arguing that the ideals of democracy count as one of the advantages of leaving the EU, because complete democracy has no inherent advantage in and of itself. Democracy may lead to advantages for the the people within it in certain situations, and arguing about the material manifestations of these advantages, as a result of escaping the manacles of underrepresentation, is completely ok, but you didn't you just stated that there is more democracy if we leave the EU and left it there, because in your fantasy world all that matters is how free you are. I would rather be forced to have a shit tonne of profitable trading agreements than be free to try to make the most of many fewer available deals while trying to survive our currency plummeting in value. This might not be true to the situation, but the point is that you should've been talking about these trade deals rather than your silly freedom malarky. SO STOP TALKING ABOUT DEMOCRACY AS AN OBJECTIVE, NON SITUATIONAL ADVANTAGE TO THIS.
Originally Posted by
Mallymkun
You're right that it isn't happening anytime soon, however, the mere possibility that it will join is a good enough reason to vote leave. And I'm sorry, you're predicting that Turkey will be a completely different country in 20 years? Slippery slope.
There is a lot of hyperbole on the internet, but please believe me when I say that I literally feel like crying right now. HOW IS A COUNTRY CHANGING OVER A 20 YEAR PERIOD HARDER TO BELIEVE THAN THAT COUNTRY GOING FROM NEARLY HAVING FREE VISAS TO BEING A MEMBER OF THE EU, AND THEN EVERYONE OTHER THAN ENGLAND ABANDONING SHIP BECAUSE OF IT
There is absolutely nothing democratic about the EU. When the commission issues a regulation, all member states are immediately under force of law. For it to be democratic there would have to be discussions in parliament, but there are none. You don't argue with it, you just accept it.
I'm glad chums like you didn't have your way. We now have a chance of being a democracy again.
Every argument finishes with democracy, because in your delusions that is "what is right" but again, is it right that when we leave there is a fair chance a massive body of laws protecting workers rights, or the environment (I'm talking global warming and smog stuff, I don't give a fuck about how many animals we kill), will just disappear? Again, this maybe it is, I don't know, I haven't looked into it, but the point is that you don't care if decent working conditions are the right thing to do, all you care about is whether those workers a suffering because of democracy. Fucking over the working class with freedom still counts as fucking them over, and you didn't even consider that as a possibility.
Originally Posted by
Mallymkun
Um, you just repeated the same thing twice.
That is what people do when they believe the person they are talking to is either an idiot, or is not listening. Even if you are not an idiot and you were listening, him covering himself in case you were, in a way that would prevent the discussion going in circles, is not something you should try to use as a counterargument (the rest of this post was fine tbh).
Originally Posted by
Dare
My opinion: why would Britain leave... It's gonna lose the balance within the eu since Britain is a power house. Now since there by themselves there free to do whatever. :0
There are still international conventions though, we should start campaigning against them. Like mallymkun explained, we don't need any more reasons than freedom right? What's wrong with using chemical weapons if you are using them with your freedom?
Originally Posted by
Mallymkun
Actually, the EU have already awarded Turkey for taking in refugees. Plus, they currently meet 65 out of the 72 requirements for free visa travel. It's not as far-fetched as you're making out.
It doesn't have to be as far-fetched as he was making out, the probability of this happening combined with the probability of a knock on effect of long-term, unavoidable economic stability in the EU is by no means clearly more probably than economic change happening to a country in turmoil over 20 years.
Originally Posted by Mallymkun
You're right, I should have phrased it differently.
Consider it legitimate trade vs illegitimate trade.
Don't you mean FREEDOM DEMOCRACY trading verses evil baby murdering dictatorship trading? I know this argument is blatant hyperbole on my part, and probably a strawman as a result, but my point is that there is no intrinsic moral or material advantages to particular ways of doing things, it is the things that they manage to and aim to achieve that are important, and only those things. Communism is genuinely a beautiful idea, and true communism doesn't actually involve a dictator because they expect everyone to just organise themselves eventually, after they realise how great sharing it. What happens when you apply to the real world? Its just a new type of dictatorship with more poverty and less individuality. Ideologies are not what feed people, and feeding people should be a focus for your morality system if you have one (as in I would assume that it is, rather than I think it would be better if it was, I don't judge morality).
Although I ask for a source, I'd also like to add that this is another example of the EU and its dreaded negotiations. If true, we aren't being denied by the US, but once again by the EU. But yes, source please!
Oh no, America seeing EU as an extremely beneficial trading partner and subsequently following some of its policies in return? How 'dread'ful! This is how agreements work, America does favours for them, and in return a (supposedly) mutually beneficial deal is made between both involved parties. To be fair, I would be willing to believe you that America's concerns that we shouldn't leave the EU might be genuine, other than the fact that America (apparently not so free after all aye?) is literally trying to get involved in the EU, so obviously do not think it is a sinking ship.
The nature of the law is irrelevant. If we can't argue then it will only be taken advantage of.
Refusing to do something because of the possibility that it might be taken advantage of, rather than waiting until something is actually being taken advantage of first. I believe this counts as a slippery slope fallacy due to its conviction, but either way, no evidence has been prevented that they would take advantage of us when clearly us leaving will make their collapse much more likely. I mean, sure they stand their ground on their policies when asked for reform, but that is because they assumed people wouldn't vote leave unless those policies were actually taking advantage of them. Unfortunately people like you exist so whether they abused us or not was irrelevant all along, because apparently evidence isn't a thing we need, just the existence of a possibility of abuse.
Originally Posted by
Hyde
Why do you insinuate that leaving the EU and supporting Nigel Farage/UKIP is mutually inclusive? Nigel Farage can go suck a dick.
Nobody is trying to say they are mutually inclusive, and they really don't need to be, but Mallymkum praised him as a hero, he was the person who is probably most responsible for the referendum happening (he raised the issue leading to pressure for other parties to comply with would be UKIP supporters and promise a referendum), and one of the most active campaigners leaving the EU, so he became relevant. He obviously isn't the only thing to be discussed, but you seem to be the only person who thinks it
is the only thing being discussed.
Originally Posted by Hyde
There is absolutely no reason the britbongs should stay in EU, it is against the best interests of the country politically, socially and economically.
That is the opening statement of an argument, not the conclusion of one. This lacks qualifications even more severely than the demographic who voted to leave.
Originally Posted by
wibblefox
Lucky UK got a freebie when Cameron quit too.
You really think that is a good thing? I mean the alternatives aren't massively better, and PMs swapping over unexpectedly is bound to be damaging, suddenly policy will no longer be focussed on actually improving the economy, and will be focussed on achieving arbitrary promised which were used to gain the trust of people who's views they would of most likely never agreed with if it wasn't to gain power. Political terms are too long as it is without them playing pass the gosh darn parcel with our entire country because you are too embarrassed to keep leading.
Originally Posted by
Mallymkun
We definitely need someone fresh and I was getting sick of him anyway.
I also like to base historic political decisions on if I am bored with someone, and even if I don't make my decision entirely on that, its important to keep it in mind.
Farage never made that claim. It was a claim made by another sector of the leave campaign. Both campaigns have lied about several things, but this one makes the papers because it was addressed to the wrong person.
Yes, both campaigns claimed that estimates were facts, but not to this degree, at least the remain campaign showed that their figures were from a probabilistic equation (as all economics tends to be as far as I care), and the fact that he mentions it now is really not that forgivable, if it had come to light a few weeks or a month down the line it would be fair enough, but it feels a lot like all that is happening is that he doesn't need to lie to get us to leave the EU anymore because we already did it. I would be very amused that it transpired that with the petition to redo the referendum people's minds have been changed by this video. I mean a lot of people feel very cheated at this point, but maybe that's just wistful thinking on my part.
It's like talking to a brick wall.
He has been responding to you points fluently and even asking questions to try to better understand where your views are coming from, he is not the brick wall here.
Farage introduced the anti-EU campaign to Britain 10 odd years ago when it was controversial to even consider leaving. It's already happening in France.
While SmallBowl phrased it as "not going to" in the end what happens now in the EU does not have an exact bearing on what would of happened if we had stayed. France are now very likely to leave, because we are one of the stronger economies in the EU and we have just left, I don't drive my car through the wall of my garage into my living room and then, after the garage collapses say "This was probably a good idea, if I had left it in there it would of been crushed when the garage collapsed", we have damaged the EU and possibly ourselves, it is collapses now it is entirely our fault, not Turkey's or the fault of their lack of democracy, or anything else.
Let me ask you this, would you rather trade with restrictions or trade without restrictions.
If the trades are completely identical then obviously it is nice to feel like I have bargaining space so I would avoid restrictions. The actual situation is more like (again, it might transpire that this was economically sensible, it doesn't change the fact that half your arguments are complete codswallop) 'let me ask you this, would you rather trade with restrictions, or trade with fewer people but without restrictions and with a currency in free fall? It really feels like you are living in a fantasy without consequences right now, and I am honestly concerned for you.
The concept of trade is two parties agreeing to something. The EU is the third party; it sits there, makes its place known and then controls everything.
Yes, the EU gives us cheaper travel in Europe and more generous trading agreements within Europe than we would have otherwise, I also think they share information with us, and in return (because trades don't just involve us getting stuff, they need something in return) we abide by laws that are enforced by the EU, some of which help our country and some of which don't, and pay a yearly fee, a lot of which wouldn't have actually been available to the NHS otherwise apparently, even though the leave campaign promised as much.
Obama already made his intentions known when he spoke out in favour of the EU a couple of months ago. He's leaving office next year, so we won't have to worry about him anymore.
When a political leader changes, all trade policies don't completely cease, that isn't how it works. There is a reasonable chance that the newly elected leader will, when faced with exactly the same evidence as Obama was, decide to go through with the policy, for the sake of gaining favour with the EU, there is also a reasonable chance that the EU will collapse as a result of us leaving, and America will give up on them and decide that England is a better trading partner. My point is that we have no idea at this point, because neither of us has provided evidence for either one or the other being more likely, but in your fantasy, literally everything goes to plan and nothing goes wrong with us leaving the EU, so the less profitable of to arbitrarily likely possibilities will ALWAYS be the ONLY possibility that is worth acknowledging.
If you find this discussion boring, then honestly just leave, preferably forever, everyone arguing against you wants you to.
LOL. Are you purposely ignoring the fact that these people are making decisions for us without our consent?
Acknowledging that there are other things to consider than your illusion of freedom and patriotic pride as a nation that makes its own decisions, is not the same thing as pretending they do not exist, if we have something to add to one of your points, we may choose to bring it up, otherwise we move the conversation forward by talking about new stuff by not just circle jerking the same comments to gratify our own egos the whole time. Your feelings being hurt because you don't feel independent enough is not a big enough reason to end the discussion only on that, you need to keep looking at new points, and not just bring up old ones. I am honestly revolted by the fact that you accused someone of being like a brick wall earlier.
Whether you perceive it to be good or bad, they never should be allowed this amount of control; it will only be abused.
if they are good but with some problems, it is better than being bad, with most likely more problems.
Originally Posted by
Mallymkun
I don't like to debate with insults. It doesn't suit me, so don't expect any back.
We don't, why would we? We are clearly just insulting you because we don't like you, there is no mutual expectation of a flame war here.
I love how you talk about this organisation as supporting reform, rather than referring to it in terms of the fact that they specifically concluded in a massive essay that we should not leave. They are very different and directly contradict in logic, the remain campaign wanted reform too. Everyone wants reform, the only difference is that the remain campaign don't want to burn the entire house down because they are angry about it.
Reforming and wanting to leave, although complete opposites, aren't that different and follow the same line, which is that the EU is far from perfect and falls behind the rest of the world.
Yeah, my marriage wasn't perfect, and my wife was being really stubborn, so I immediately filed a divorce, despite it being a much more time consuming, stressful and financially draining process than the marriage itself.
A) Ignoring the original point made,
I dealt with this earlier.
B) An example of a slippery slope fallacy,
You sure do wind me up, I am in quite the huff about this right now. Also, you can quote things for a reason, I don't know which part of his argument you are talking about, please explain.
Well gee, the reason people discuss things, and continue discussing things, is because they can't always exactly comprehend each other's logic, if you explained your logic perfectly, and I understood it perfectly, there would be no difference to work out, I could immediately see exactly why our views differ and we would have no reason to disagree, as our logic would have been broken down as far as possible and there would be nothing else to explore. Unfortunately, either you are not as good at explaining yourself, or all of the three people arguing with you are not good enough at interpreting it, to understand your logic. That isn't an insult btw, that is what you expect to be happening until a discussion is concluded. Admittedly personal attacks should be avoided, but I consider you voting to put my currency in free fall and obliterate my travel plans as a personal attack, and that isn't enough for me to claim you can't understand logic (instead I imply that you can't understand logic in general for a wide ranging variety of reasons, like you should try to do with other people, rather than equating feeling butt hurt to being objectively correct).
Oh, and a second referendum won't happen, so stop dreaming.
Yeah guys, get out of your fantasy world and listen to this fountain of down to earth realism.
-----
In terms of who was likely to vote what, it isn't particularly relevant, people are likely to be swayed by those around them and it could still simply just be a case of David Cameron appealing to those who, like him, have had an expensive education, rather than people actually being divided by intelligence, but either way, an idea should be judge on its own merits, not the merits of those who support it, especially when so few people actually knew what they were supporting (I think this applies to a certain extent to both sides).
Last edited by NotZelda; Jun 26, 2016 at 06:12 PM.
Reason: Think of the children :0