HTOTM: FUSION
Originally Posted by Gorman
Even if we didn't invent the name "Purchasing power parity" or even the concept, it's principals would still be in effect.
Like you said once before "if you are dying of thirst, which is more valuable, a gallon of water of a ton of gold?". This is essentially the PPP in effect. This is not some artificial construct that humans have unanimously decided to agree with - things really do have value dependant on context.

The ambiguity is introduced when you realize that the man might actually take the gold, and there is no way to quantify this probability. Indeed, there are so many incalculable possibilities (see: a random walk) that economics as applied to the real world is extremely imprecise, much more so than physics. Economics is a science, but even though conceptually it may be concrete, in practice it is not.
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Hey look more than two lines.
Depends, just like any other social science. Cow explained it well in his previous post.

Originally Posted by ImmortalCow View Post
You are confusing economics with with future chronology. Economics neither predicts the future, nor does it deal with specifics... an economist cannot predict the future without much data, and as with physics, there are many events with small probability that could change the outcome.

However if you ask a physicist or an economist to explain the expected outcome of a closed system event, both will thrive.
Once the flood occured, the price projections were calculated.

Economics deals with a FAR more complex and volatile field than physics. Besides that, real world economic predictions are NOT a field of pure economics - they are a multi-disciplinary field of macro behavioural science, mathematicians, business analysts - and you seem to think that seismic geologists and astronomers too!

...even though we can't predict when prices will rise or fall, if we have a closed feedback loop we can easily adjust to always take the best choice of action to move towards a goal.

Originally Posted by deprav
tl;dr : If you were about to die of thrist, would a ton of gold be more valuable than a galon of water ?

[Cow's answer >]
I would take the gold, then sell some for water. Hell if I take a kilo of gold to someone's house, they will probably give me water for free so we can negotiate the price.

The funny thing is he did choose the gold.


That is the realm of psychology, not economics. [programmed obsolescence]

In what manner programmed obsolescence falls into the realm of psychology? (not sure I'm following you here.)
And ain't psychology a huge part of economics? Because if it wasn't, how could it ever be viable ?


You may notice that wikipedia does not say that economics is governed by money. Stop putting words in to wikipedia's mouth. Why did you just quote the article, then ignore it and add your own sentence?

Wikipedia :

"...The classic brief definition of economics, set out by Lionel Robbins in 1932, is "the science which studies human behavior as a relation between scarce means having alternative uses." Without scarcity and alternative uses, there is no economic problem. Briefer yet is "the study of how people seek to satisfy needs and wants" and "the study of the financial aspects of human behavior."

As you said yourself, you need money (in our present world) to satisfy needs and wants.
And regarding scarcity and the "economic problem", what if scarcity of certain ressources or goods is created on purpose by men for their profit? That makes one of the fundamental economics theories totally unpredictable, even more if men generally tends to hoard money, by greed or whatever.

Also interesting thing from wiki :

"In behavioral economics, psychologist Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in economics in 2002 for his and Amos Tversky's empirical discovery of several cognitive biases and heuristics. Similar empirical testing occurs in neuroeconomics. Another example is the assumption of narrowly selfish preferences versus a model that tests for selfish, altruistic, and cooperative preferences.[92] These techniques have led some to argue that economics is a "genuine science."[10]"


Also I'd like to point out again that economics is full of political opinions.

So yeah, I think I percieve economics more as a "constantly changing scientific tool" instead of a science, since it studies an eternally evolving and changing matter (humans and their needs).
Our needs, wants, customs and political opinions are constantly (but slowly) changing and differ from one person to another, which require economics to be constantly changing if we ever want it to be useful - which differs from other sciences relying on immuable laws.



Anyway, what is now a debat about economics being a science or not was initially intended to show how currency/money, being a constant factor of our evolution, has impacted on our perception of our environment, as well as our perception of money itself. I think we did see what I meant now.
One simple sentence in your first answer expose it pretty well :

"Money is a means to the end, and while some people do completely associate money with happiness, it should be obvious to everyone that money is the ability to produce happiness (both by providing food, shelter, and for trivial means too)."

Money does provide what you need to survive (sadly), but it doesn't provide friends, love, self-respect, humility and answers to existential questions.
Last edited by deprav; Mar 29, 2013 at 06:33 AM.
Originally Posted by Boredpayne View Post
Economics is a science, but even though conceptually it may be concrete, in practice it is not.

I would like to back up his claim by saying that this can be seen by how communism inevitably failed, even though it was marked as a "Utopian Lifestyle".
Originally Posted by Boredpayne View Post
The ambiguity is introduced when you realize that the man might actually take the gold, and there is no way to quantify this probability. Indeed, there are so many incalculable possibilities (see: a random walk) that economics as applied to the real world is extremely imprecise, much more so than physics. Economics is a science, but even though conceptually it may be concrete, in practice it is not.

Incorrect.

Randomness does not affect the legitimacy or concepts of economics. If you look up PPP you can see that it works on a macro scale using large datasets to generate averages over huge geographic areas. It doesn't work on a personal level. If one day everyone in Thailand decided that water is more valuable than gold, then the PPP would be appropriately adjusted. As you can tell, PPP is an abstract concept working on a macro level, even though you think humans act randomly on a personal level, in large scales they are predictable... Though you already know all this.

FYI Random walk is a hill climbing algorithm that is completely unrelated to economics :I
Originally Posted by Skolfe View Post
I would like to back up his claim by saying that this can be seen by how communism inevitably failed, even though it was marked as a "Utopian Lifestyle".

The fact that no political movement has been implemented ideally is itself very predictable. The tragedy of commons and the concept of 'ego' are both very well documented.
Plus that all communism every implemented in a large scale was really just a military dictatorship - thus pure marxism has never been implemented in a large scale. But like communism, democracy, theology, etc, it will never be possible to implement in practice.

I don't know why you think such a predictable event is random...
Originally Posted by deprav View Post
The funny thing is he did choose the gold.

Your scenario was unconstrained so it made more sense. However once I had the goal I would be willing to pay more than $1/L, because I would have a lot of demand for water.
So the situation still illustrated supply and demand.

Originally Posted by deprav View Post
In what manner programmed obsolescence falls into the realm of psychology? (not sure I'm following you here.)
And ain't psychology a huge part of economics? Because if it wasn't, how could it ever be viable ?

Programmed obsolescence is a concept that covers both industrial design (making a product fail predictably) and psychology (making it become eventually become unfashionable) and additionally business.
Economics does not study how and why things are made, nor why producers make specific decisions.
Originally Posted by deprav View Post
"...The classic brief definition of economics, set out by Lionel Robbins in 1932, is "the science which studies human behavior as a relation between scarce means having alternative uses." Without scarcity and alternative uses, there is no economic problem. Briefer yet is "the study of how people seek to satisfy needs and wants" and "the study of the financial aspects of human behavior."

Economics is an abstracted field of study, it studies human behaviour on a macro scale.
It has little care for specific decisions of people, in the same way that biology must be aware of chemistry, but it's not a sub field.

Originally Posted by deprav View Post
As you said yourself, you need money (in our present world) to satisfy needs and wants.
And regarding scarcity and the "economic problem", what if scarcity of certain ressources or goods is created on purpose by men for their profit? That makes one of the fundamental economics theories totally unpredictable, even more if men generally tends to hoard money, by greed or whatever.

No, supply and demand is a fundamental theory of economics, so reducing the supply in order to increase the profits is obvious.
If you increase supply, the price will drop, if you decrease it then price will rise. If you increase demand the price will rise, if you decrease demand the price will drop.
This is fundamental and basic economics. Why would people putting this in to practice invalidate the theory??
Originally Posted by deprav View Post

"In behavioral economics, psychologist Daniel Kahneman won the Nobel Prize in economics in 2002 for his and Amos Tversky's empirical discovery of several cognitive biases and heuristics. Similar empirical testing occurs in neuroeconomics. Another example is the assumption of narrowly selfish preferences versus a model that tests for selfish, altruistic, and cooperative preferences.[92] These techniques have led some to argue that economics is a "genuine science."[10]"

Yes, that is interesting. The idea of economics not only being a social science, but also a universal truth is generally accepted, and I agree with Lazear's ideal that economics should be considered as 'genuine' (equal to physics and mathematics etc) rather than a social science.
I don't know what you are trying to say, because once again this quote supports my arguments not yours...

Originally Posted by deprav View Post
Also I'd like to point out again that economics is full of political opinions.

Of course, so is archeology, physics, chemistry, astronomy ... Anything studied by human will be subject to politics. To quote Lazear: "Economics is not only a social science, it is a genuine science. Like the physical sciences, economics uses a methodology that produces refutable implications and tests these implications using solid statistical techniques."
Again, what is your point?

Originally Posted by deprav View Post
So yeah, I think I percieve economics more as a "constantly changing scientific tool" instead of a science, since it studies an eternally evolving and changing matter (humans and their needs).

No, it doesn't. I should think by this time you should have AT THE VERY LEAST read the wikipedia article. Economics is an abstract field as we have said many times.
Economics is no more about money and people than computer science is about computers.

Originally Posted by deprav View Post
Our needs, wants, customs and political opinions are constantly (but slowly) changing and differ from one person to another, which require economics to be constantly changing if we ever want it to be useful - which differs from other sciences relying on immuable laws.

No matter which object you drop, it will fall. Even though the object may be constantly changing, the laws of gravity will never change.
ONCE AGAIN using the example of PPP, the concept is completely abstract and universal. A million years ago it was true, in a million years it will still be true.
The concept of supply and demand will also remain valid indefinitely.

Another parallel is evolution, which by definition always applies to constantly changing organisms, yet is always valid.
Originally Posted by deprav View Post
Anyway, what is now a debat about economics being a science or not was initially intended to show how currency/money, being a constant factor of our evolution, has impacted on our perception of our environment, as well as our perception of money itself. I think we did see what I meant now.
One simple sentence in your first answer expose it pretty well :

"Money is a means to the end, and while some people do completely associate money with happiness, it should be obvious to everyone that money is the ability to produce happiness (both by providing food, shelter, and for trivial means too)."

Money does provide what you need to survive (sadly), but it doesn't provide friends, love, self-respect, humility and answers to existential questions.

Obviously. That is completely irrelevant to the discussion.

Even if you have friends, love, self-respect, humility and answers to existential questions, you still need food, shelter, water, etc. Plenty of people with masters degrees in philosophy can attest to that.
Originally Posted by ImmortalCow View Post
The fact that no political movement has been implemented ideally is itself very predictable. The tragedy of commons and the concept of 'ego' are both very well documented.
Plus that all communism ever implemented in a large scale was really just a military dictatorship - thus pure marxism has never been implemented in a large scale.

Well, I was moreover agreeing with him for the economic standpoint of communism. The one where dictatorship has no effect because politics are completely removed from the system.

Although I would like to say that I, personally, don't agree so much with your predictability argument. Possibly because I don't think reoccurring trends should influence an outcome in any way. Like saying, if I flip a coin that lands on heads 83 times in a row, I should still expect heads on the next flip. However, as long as there's still a possibility for it to land on tails, I can't be sure of it until after it's happened.
Originally Posted by Skolfe View Post
Well, I was moreover agreeing with him for the economic standpoint of communism. The one where dictatorship has no effect because politics are completely removed from the system.

Although I would like to say that I, personally, don't agree so much with your predictability argument. Possibly because I don't think reoccurring trends should influence an outcome in any way. Like saying, if I flip a coin that lands on heads 83 times in a row, I should still expect heads on the next flip. However, as long as there's still a possibility for it to land on tails, I can't be sure of it until after it's happened.

That is not how statistics work.
The calculated odds do NOT affect any individual action, however we can say that getting 84 heads in a row is a 1-in-1.9342813e+25 occurrence and thus is unlikely. However if you have already flipped 83 coins then the odds of getting a heads and tails are equal.

This is not a question of past trends affecting the future, it is a lesson in how probability works and the specific importance are placed on random data.


If every time you plant a tree it dies within a year, you won't say "well this time It'll work even though I'm doing the same thing". Neither politics nor horticulture work by random chance - if you keep doing the same thing over and over again it's unlikely the outcome will change.
Obviously. That is completely irrelevant to the discussion.

Lel, not really... it's more like the whole discussion is totally irrelevant from that point because that's what I wanted to point out at first, then you went all mad about Economics and value, and somehow I followed you.
__________________________________________________ ___


No, supply and demand is a fundamental theory of economics, so reducing the supply in order to increase the profits is obvious.
If you increase supply, the price will drop, if you decrease it then price will rise. If you increase demand the price will rise, if you decrease demand the price will drop.
This is fundamental and basic economics. Why would people putting this in to practice invalidate the theory??

It does not invalidate the theory, it changes its very nature. Because it does not studies the needs of human beings anymore, it shows ways to create needs and generate profit. That's one of the "political aspect" of economics.

Yes, that is interesting. The idea of economics not only being a social science, but also a universal truth is generally accepted, and I agree with Lazear's ideal that economics should be considered as 'genuine' (equal to physics and mathematics etc) rather than a social science.
I don't know what you are trying to say, because once again this quote supports my arguments not yours...

I put that here to point out some cognitive biases were exposed in 2002, it either means all we believed was true in Economics before 2002 was in fact false and unapplicable, or people change depending on their political environment and Economics need to change as well (acquire new knowledge) depending on people.


Of course, so is archeology, physics, chemistry, astronomy ... Anything studied by human will be subject to politics. To quote Lazear: "Economics is not only a social science, it is a genuine science. Like the physical sciences, economics uses a methodology that produces refutable implications and tests these implications using solid statistical techniques."
Again, what is your point?

Whether you're capitalist or communist or whatever, doesn't affect your perception of physic laws, chemistry laws or astronomy laws etc... o_O Theories are of course created from personnal opinions at first but nothing related to politics.

Now my point with those 3 quotes :

Economics is "the study of how people seek to satisfy needs and wants" ( if we take the largest simple definition on wikipedia.) ok.
We said Economics "works better" or can be applied more easily in a closed system. ok.
So, if we consider economics on a world scale, what we could define a "closed system" to apply economics would be, in short, liberal capitalism - since that's the direction the world has seemed to take those last decades, even considering each country's own system. yes ?
So economics, on a world scale, considers that people produce and consume goods according to the capitalist system.

But, what if someday, people realize things have to change because it obviously doesn't work with the current system. They'll considere producing & consuming under a new angle, and redefine their needs and priority. Since "Political beliefs depend most strongly on the political beliefs most common in the community where we live." yes ?
Economics would have to change as well if it "wants" to be reliable, no ?
I undersand some principles like PPP can be applied whatever system is applied, but PPP isn't the one and only principle of economics, amiright ?
Like people would have to reconsidere "the economic problem" if we manage ourselves differently.

That doesn't make Economics less of a science**, I'm not trying to prove it's uneffective, it does what it aims for, but it differs from other sciences because of that particular narrow relationship with our political environment.

[** wiki : Science (from Latin scientia, meaning "knowledge") is a systematic enterprise that builds and organizes knowledge in the form of testable explanations and predictions about the universe.[1] In an older and closely related meaning (found, for example, in Aristotle), "science" refers to the body of reliable knowledge itself, of the type that can be logically and rationally explained (see History and philosophy below)

So yes, economics is a knowledge still logically and rationally explainable, but can't you see its nefast effect on our perception of politics if we consider it immuable ?

which brings me to the other point, you said :

The fact that no political movement has been implemented ideally is itself very predictable. The tragedy of commons and the concept of 'ego' are both very well documented.
Plus that all communism every implemented in a large scale was really just a military dictatorship - thus pure marxism has never been implemented in a large scale. But like communism, democracy, theology, etc, it will never be possible to implement in practice.

Which at first made me want to slap you in the face and shout "WAKE THE FUCK UP!", but I'm a peaceful person.
This exactly illustrates my point, like I said in some earlier posts : trying to apply communism or real democracy or whatever in ONE country, included in the world scale capitalist system, is like trying to spread some margarine on butter, there's no point.
But that doesn't mean those systems are theorically inapplicable. We HAVE to aim for a better system and even if we can't apply it perfectly, we CAN'T stay immobile in the actual capitalist system because it's killing us, deminishing our freedom, raising us as senseless consuming sheeps, and altering our political discernment (which is necessary for a social specy, yes?).

So yeah that probably is my main beef with economics : considered as an immuable science, it closes our perception and possibilites for other political system ; considere as a mean and not an end in itself, it still gives us possibilities for other ways of shaping our society.
Do you get this point I want to show you ?

As you said yourself : "if you keep doing the same thing over and over again it's unlikely the outcome will change."
Originally Posted by Gorman
Randomness does not affect the legitimacy or concepts of economics.

Randomness is uncertainty, and I'm saying that economics is more uncertain than physics. I am not questioning its legitimacy.
Originally Posted by Gorman
FYI Random walk is a hill climbing algorithm that is completely unrelated to economics :I

Different context.
Last edited by Boredpayne; Mar 30, 2013 at 10:35 PM.
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Hey look more than two lines.
Originally Posted by Boredpayne View Post
Randomness is uncertainty, and I'm saying that economics is more uncertain than physics. I am not questioning its legitimacy.

Physics is a far more developed field than economics. Yes there is a lot more uncertainty in economics, which is why models and probabilities are used.
Economics may not be able to make precise decisions, but on a macro scale it's not bad.
Originally Posted by Boredpayne View Post
Different context.

I see.
Originally Posted by deprav View Post
Lel, not really... it's more like the whole discussion is totally irrelevant from that point because that's what I wanted to point out at first, then you went all mad about Economics and value, and somehow I followed you.

I don't know why you came here with the intention of pointing out something obvious and irrelevant...

Originally Posted by deprav View Post
It does not invalidate the theory, it changes its very nature. Because it does not studies the needs of human beings anymore, it shows ways to create needs and generate profit. That's one of the "political aspect" of economics.

That is not at all true. Please use wikipedia to learn about supply and demand.
Originally Posted by deprav View Post
I put that here to point out some cognitive biases were exposed in 2002, it either means all we believed was true in Economics before 2002 was in fact false and unapplicable, or people change depending on their political environment and Economics need to change as well (acquire new knowledge) depending on people.

No, that's not the correct conclusion. Economics is a 'genuine science', thus we will consider to discover and create theories. It's not correct to say that economics needs to change depending on the people. If we went back in time 2000 years then the economic theory we have now will definitely be more valid. As the field develops then it will change, but it won't change merely because the people, or politics change. If we went back 2000 years, would we ignore gravity?
Originally Posted by deprav View Post
Whether you're capitalist or communist or whatever, doesn't affect your perception of physic laws, chemistry laws or astronomy laws etc... o_O Theories are of course created from personnal opinions at first but nothing related to politics.

No, economics is applicable to capitalism and communism. Supply and demand still exists, PPP can still be calculated.

Originally Posted by deprav View Post
Now my point with those 3 quotes :

Economics is "the study of how people seek to satisfy needs and wants" ( if we take the largest simple definition on wikipedia.) ok.
We said Economics "works better" or can be applied more easily in a closed system. ok.
So, if we consider economics on a world scale, what we could define a "closed system" to apply economics would be, in short, liberal capitalism - since that's the direction the world has seemed to take those last decades, even considering each country's own system. yes ?
So economics, on a world scale, considers that people produce and consume goods according to the capitalist system.

But, what if someday, people realize things have to change because it obviously doesn't work with the current system. They'll considere producing & consuming under a new angle, and redefine their needs and priority. Since "Political beliefs depend most strongly on the political beliefs most common in the community where we live." yes ?
Economics would have to change as well if it "wants" to be reliable, no ?
I undersand some principles like PPP can be applied whatever system is applied, but PPP isn't the one and only principle of economics, amiright ?
Like people would have to reconsidere "the economic problem" if we manage ourselves differently.

Ignoring that your quote is NOT from the economics page of wikipedia, you should think of economics as providing a set of analytical equations. If you change the input, the output will change. But the equation itself does not change.
Similarly the law of gravity is not "you are attracted to earth at an acceleration of 9.8m/s^2", it is actually an equation which will work on any heavenly body, and even on a micro level.
Originally Posted by deprav View Post
That doesn't make Economics less of a science**, I'm not trying to prove it's uneffective, it does what it aims for, but it differs from other sciences because of that particular narrow relationship with our political environment.

It isn't though.
Originally Posted by deprav View Post
Which at first made me want to slap you in the face and shout "WAKE THE FUCK UP!", but I'm a peaceful person.
This exactly illustrates my point, like I said in some earlier posts : trying to apply communism or real democracy or whatever in ONE country, included in the world scale capitalist system, is like trying to spread some margarine on butter, there's no point.
But that doesn't mean those systems are theorically inapplicable. We HAVE to aim for a better system and even if we can't apply it perfectly, we CAN'T stay immobile in the actual capitalist system because it's killing us, deminishing our freedom, raising us as senseless consuming sheeps, and altering our political discernment (which is necessary for a social specy, yes?).

As long as humans are involved no political system will ever be perfect. Yes, you can improve it - for example America could remove religion from it's government, make decisions by logic instead of from the bible, they could create a set of laws to give consumers protection from bad goods. However at the end of it you will have politicians making laws, and companies who want laws to protect their interests, so the situation won't change.
While USA might be the most broken country in the world, it's many problems are obvious so I used it as an example.
As for your comments about everyone being sheep; everyone thinks everyone else are sheep. Everyone needs to take care of themselves, if they don't, that is their own problem.
Originally Posted by deprav View Post
So yeah that probably is my main beef with economics : considered as an immuable science, it closes our perception and possibilites for other political system ; considere as a mean and not an end in itself, it still gives us possibilities for other ways of shaping our society.
Do you get this point I want to show you ?

As you said yourself : "if you keep doing the same thing over and over again it's unlikely the outcome will change."

I understand your point, however you clearly need to read up on what economics actually is instead of guessing. Start with the wikipedia page please.