Originally Posted by
sirkill1
You and I both know damn well they don't stand a chance in a revolt. Un is the epitome of a machiavellion style leader. Any threat at all to his authority is met with punishments such as the three generation imprisonment or being executed by mortar. The man killed his uncle like that. I said the leadership has to consciously make a decision to open their borders. Same as China and imperial Japan. Un does not have to be leader for that. One angry bullet is all it takes, or some light convincing like sanctions that prevent any imports from entering the country.
So you're going to wait for Un to be assassinated (might be waiting for a while, like his father), or you're going to sway them through economic sanctions (like we've been trying forever)? Fat chance.
NK is a hedgehog. There will not suddenly orientate towards being friendly with the world. Their goal is to make themselves unthinkable of attacking through the use of a nuclear deterrent. They have not headed down the path of friendship, and there's no reason for them to stop trying to achieve their nuclear goal.
I want you to read this piece I wrote on the failure of nuclear prohibition. We're able to talk with Iran because they participate in the global community - We don't have the same luxury with NK, because they've always and still do consider themselves at war with us. Us being friendly to them (e.g. the humanitarian relief we gave them in the famine in the 90s) just results in our friendliness being taken advantage of. They are fully, and will stay, fully committed to the downfall of the West.
Originally Posted by
sirkill1
I don't think you quite understand the magnitude of the refugee problem you're creating. First of all you've assumed that the north Korean people will accept the end of their God emporer and go quietly to unify with South Korea. They won't. There was a dude in the jungle that fought for 40 years after the surrender of Japan to allied forces in world War 2 because he didn't believe that Japan lost. You'd be naive to think that a group of people so brainwashed that they think their leader literally shits gold lost and that it is in their best interest to unify.
For as many instances of peoples refusing to surrender, I can name as many instances of peoples accepting surrender.
Also lol. A dude in Japan took 40 years to come around? Didn't take the rest of the country so long.
I think you also buy into some of the Western media rumours a bit too much. They don't nod when if someone asks 'Does Kim Jong Un shit gold' because they actually believe he shits gold, they nod because they know they're supposed to nod and they know that if they don't nod, their life and their families lives are going to get
even more shitty real quick.
Originally Posted by
sirkill1
There would absolutely be a power vaccum and I can almost guarantee you that his chief General would take over in the case that Un was no longer in charge. Same as happened to most of the Arab springs countries and imperial Japan and sierra leone and an enormous number of other countries and civilizations throughout history. Shit even America, chief General George Washington was elected president after our departure from Britain. Chief Generals get shit done.
-.-
Know who Karl Donitz is? He's the guy Hitler left in charge after Hitler blew his brains out. He surrendered to the French one week into his command. But these are all nonsense points. This situation is nothing like the examples you listed. The power vacuum would not exist. There would be nothing for anybody to take charge of. As I said, which you ignored, United Korea would exist. The regime would no longer exist, NK would no longer exist. There would be no way for some other strong man to seize power, because there would no power to seize.
Originally Posted by
sirkill1
Like I said before a simple invasion won't lead to a liberation like you think it would. You would guarantee the destruction of Seoul and the deaths of countless millions. Tens of Thousands of missiles from the sixties explode cities just as well now as they did then. Sure Sk might knock down a couple of them but the shear number would simply be impossible to defend successfully against without significant loss of life.
All it takes is a big tactical airstrike coordinated to take out their missile systems, all at once. This is already an option that's been developed and discussed, and would likely be our move if shit were to kick off.
Originally Posted by
sirkill1
I also don't know why you assumed a revolution was necessary.... in both China and Japan there was no revolution after the retirement of their leaders; there was simply a party reform.
Well, it's as I said, NK is not China and it's not Japan. You'd know that if you knew more about Japan, more about China and more about NK. Or if you listened to me the first time.
The reason why it's necessary is because those people remain horribly repressed, suffering crimes against humanity. Aside from the
obvious moral imperative (which ought to be enough), our countries have also all committed to intervening in situations that are exactly like this (under R2P) because of the total horrors that have been allowed to occur when we previously acted too late, or not at all.
The reason we can't wait around for some miraculous 180 regime shift that's never going to happen, is because every day that passes they get closer to achieve their nuclear goal. At the point, it will become impossible for us to do anything about the hostages. At that point, we'll all be talking about how we failed them, even after we said we'd never fail again after Rwanda (and before that, when we said 'never again' about the holocaust). It's a ticking time bomb, and it won't be long before we'll be saying 'never again' about NK.
Last edited by Ele; Sep 19, 2017 at 03:40 AM.