I would like to start a discussion about a topic which has been debated about quite a lot before (usually with quite a strong polarity between each side).

Do you think a certain degree of luck is present in toribash regardless of the mod?

Do you think it is enough of a factor to make the correlation between winning and actual skill unreliable?

What do you think constitutes 'luck' in the game? E.g. Is it simply factors you can't predict or prepare for or is it when the extremely improbably things happen which are completely beyond your control?

If you feel like I am being too vague in my questions then please just ask for more details rather than ranting at me about it. And try to be understanding of other people's points of view.

There is a certain aspect of luck considering you cannot predict what the other person will do, or whether that relaxed ankle will make that small change to get you the dq, or the boom.
You can become better and better at predicting what will happen, as you understand how the game works over time; but there is also something completely random about it at times. Even though the shovel is like a perfected move and pretty much unbeatable by most players because they're scrubs; how is it that a white belt's flailing around slapping the keyboard randomly is somehow able to beat a move that beats most players.

Luck isn't enough of a factor to be able to replace actual skill. It makes you win or lose in those random situations where the circumstances just turn out to perfectly fit in that one perfect arrangement that guarantees victory or failure. There was a brilliant replay I saw once where someone lost because their wrist broke and dq'd them after they threw someone out of the ring. Said person managed to keep themselves from falling out for like 150 frames. Those chances that you just can't anticipate unless you have a perfect knowledge of the game are what really define luck in this game.

I agree. The fact that you have so much effect on your opponent while playing offensively means that your opponent sometimes has to put all their eggs in one positional basket and just pray that you throw them/attack them in that direction. While attacking you have to do a lot more of the work to lead the game while being in less of a position to predict it (if you are doing a lot of movement it is harder to work out whether the defender is going to counter it or not). I think that sometimes because of this relationship flailing can be quite effective against those who don't expect it in mods like abd (as long as you keep your knees extended while flailing and stuff) while two players of similar style will keep having extremely close games while using very advanced tactics and stuff.

I belive luck is involved when dealing with points. Sometomes a hit to the head gives less points then a gentile touch to the ankle. Sometimes i barely get touched and the other guy has 20k points...but that depends on the mod to.
And the random dm's are also lucky. That's stuff u can't predict...it just happens.
Or luck is also when u are last frame into a fight with close points and the other guy just barely touches you with a crazy move and he wins, or the other way around

You can't ever rule luck out completely in any game.

Besides small bugs or lucky hits, I think Toribash is actually fairly well-balanced. There's just way too many people who won't own up to their losses and call their opponent lucky.

I also find it interesting how much someones skill can fluctuate depending on whether they are "playing well/having a good day/on form" or not. I believe that this shows the amount of connection with the game (I mean this is mental terms, like being focussed and stuff) you need to have to play at a high level.

It takes 5 seconds to predict your opponents move, just look at there position and you can work out what they will do. You can even predict openers with some success.

Lol.
You saying you can read minds? Everyone has different logic and will come to different conclusions about the best move in that situation. Hence, there is no possible prediction because every slight joint change has a drastic impact on the way your tori will move over the next 20 frames.
Sure, go on about how there is a best move for every situation. There isn't. There are good moves; there are those that are more effective then others because they counter more moves overall then others, but there is no 'best move'.

If it's so easy to predict other player's moves, then pro players would never lose because they are masters at the game. All they'd have to do is predict2win which doesn't happen.
Prediction doesn't mean crap in Toribash; go ahead and predict what I'm going to do all you want. All I have to do is change around a couple joints and your 'predictions' are completely useless.
Toribash is utterly chaotic in the sense that in order to be good; you have to be able to improvise constantly. Not predict. That's the stupidest thing I've ever heard.

I guess my steady win ratio of nearly 70% proves that skill makes you win in the long run. I find it easy to win very most players I play in public mostly because they have no movement / setup ability or just don't know what they're doing thus making stuff they do very inefficient.

I don't think your win ratio reflects just your skill level. It probably reflects your understanding of the game, as well. And like Dscigs said, luck absolutely plays a factor.